Introduction
Good morning, Jake. How are you doing?
[Jake Alexander]
Hey, good morning. Nice to see you. Nice and early here on a Wednesday.
[Richard Bexon]
Exactly, man. Exactly. I think this is probably the earliest I think I’ve ever done a podcast, to be honest with you, Jake.
But it’s good to get up early and early bird catches the early worm, I suppose.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, just get up and get it out of the way.
[Richard Bexon]
Exactly. Exactly. Well, Jake, appreciate you joining us here on the podcast.
The first question I always like to ask is kind of like what you’re seeing happening here in the market. But I’m going to reframe it a little bit. I mean, what have you seen happen in 2025?
What was like, what surprised you and what was to be expected?
2025 Sentiment Shift After the U.S. Election
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, I think the biggest trend I saw, especially at the beginning of 2025, with the change in presidency in the US was, you know, conversations weekly about people wanting to relocate here and leave. And, you know, that’s really fizzled out at this point. And, you know, I don’t know if that’s because people are just kind of used to the unexpected and unknown or it’s not so wavering as it was.
But that was probably the biggest thing I saw at the beginning of 2025. That’s really fizzled out at this point.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, I think we’ll probably see a little bit.
I mean, we’ve seen a little bit here and there, but I agree. I mean, even just in the demand online, we saw that that kind of happening. I mean, how has real estate like acted in 2025?
Oh, very active.
[Jake Alexander]
You know, we had lots of lots of people buying properties here, ranging from, you know, a couple of hundred thousand dollars to over a million dollars, hotels. There’s always kind of that lull in like the second half of the year, especially September, October. But, you know, even in that time frame, you know, we put some things under contract that were people that we had met and worked with previously.
And even now I’m starting to see like the trend kind of kick back up again and more interest and more people ready to move on some properties here.
Short‑Term Rentals: Jacó vs. Manuel Antonio
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah. I mean, in like 2022, 2023, 2024, there was a huge focus on short-term rentals, people buying stuff. Are you still seeing that demand of people wanting to invest into short-term rentals?
Or is that kind of fizzled out a little bit as well?
[Jake Alexander]
People want it. I mean, who wouldn’t want it?
[Richard Bexon]
Sure.
[Jake Alexander]
But the fact of the matter is like, you can’t really have your cake and eat it too. And for a while, you know, you could kind of get away with having a short-term rental here and having your money flow into the U.S. if you wanted to. But, you know, the government’s cracking down.
And when you just look at it from a purely statistical standpoint, you know, in 2020, we had the January of 2020 peak arrivals month this country’s ever seen and 19,000 and some odd change short-term rentals. Fast forward to now, we haven’t touched that number yet. And we have almost 40,000 short-term rentals.
Yeah. So the return isn’t going to be there. Can you do it?
Yes. But it’s not just as simple as buying a one, two or three bedroom place, throwing it on Airbnb and thinking that you’re going to get the best bang for your buck and the highest return.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah. I mean, I think it’s that just where demand meets supply, really. I mean, there are some areas that have a lot of supply, you know, that don’t have strong demand.
I mean, you know, like Hakko is one of those markets that has a huge amount of supply and more coming on. I was meeting with some of the big developers over there about two weeks ago as we went to Miami for Lafitte’s 40th celebration. And they’ve got big projects coming into Hakko.
And I was like, go on, man. I mean, if every single one time a new one of these happens, it adds 5 to 10 percent more inventory in the market. So I’m like, OK, what does that do to demand?
And, you know, I mean, it keeps I suppose what it does is it keeps the real estate value at that two, three hundred thousand dollar mark for a two, three bedroom, you know, Oceanview condo, which is kind of nice. The problem is your rentability just keeps dropping because there’s more and more competition, you know, whereas you’ve got more markets like Manuel Antonio, where there really isn’t that much available for sale. There is a lot of demand.
And if you create something unique, you can push up your ADRs and occupancy.
Standing Out in Los Sueños and Beach Towns
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, I think the focus is like unique, like what they’re building at Hakko. If you want to be on the beach for two to three hundred thousand dollars, like it’s perfect for you. But in terms of rentability, like what are you doing to differentiate yourself from the other hundred, hundreds, thousands, short term rentals out there that are also three bedroom place with the notion of, you know, walking distance to the beach?
[Richard Bexon]
I mean, look, my advice for people is this, bring in a great interior designer and make it look very unique, make it feel and look very, very unique or do an analysis and figure out the top performing stuff in other markets and just try and copy that in your own current market. Then you need a great property management company, you know, because if you’re just going to sling it on Airbnb, you’re just in there with fighting with everyone else. And the questions you should be asking your property management company is what is your distribution channels when managing a property?
Because if it’s, oh, no, we use Airbnb and VRBO and online, you’re just competing with everyone else. What have you done uniquely to drive traffic directly? Are you part of any like rental networks?
You know, what are you doing? You know, not everyone is capable of doing that. And, you know, I mean, that’s a service that we offer to our clients.
You know, whenever they end up working with us, is that analysis there to find the right property management company for them? But yeah, I mean, look, you know, I mean, we create unique product in, you know, unique destinations. So, you know, we’re I think, you know, I always say that we’re cheating, just because we have all of that.
We have those luxury distribution channels. But yeah, yeah, I mean, I think you just need to be really smart about what it is that you’re going to be in. If you’re doing it for an investment, you have to be really smart going forward of what you’re going to do in Costa Rica.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, there’s one place that always comes to mind when thinking about like, how do you separate yourself in a sea of the same? And there’s one three bedroom, I think it’s a veranda condo in Los Sueños that has two double beds in each of the rooms. Yep.
So if you had a group of guys, six guys wanting to come fish, and they’re more on a tighter budget, you can actually fit all them in this three bedroom condo, and they each have their own bed. And that place was hands down booked more than other condos were. And it was like my first one that I would go to look for if I had a group of people coming down that would fit that criteria, because it was the only one that had it.
Tourism‑Driven Strategy in Manuel Antonio & Arenal
[Richard Bexon]
But you need to know that market, man, you know, and I mean, again, if you’re if you’re coming in from abroad, you don’t know that market. And I think that this is, you know, the biggest thing I think people need to understand in Costa Rica here is everything is driven by tourism, real estate values, rentability, everything is driven by tourism. The problem is developers and realtors don’t know tourism, and nor do they really want to know tourism, they never talk to tourism, if that makes sense.
And the property managers don’t either, which drives me like they’re in tourism and don’t talk to, you know, the, you know, the main players in tourism to be like, this is what the you know, what, what’s being demanded.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, right. This is what people are asking for. And this is what we should be building.
Yeah, I mean, that’s kind of goes the other way around, where this is what we’re building. And we hope that people have demand for it.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, it’s what exactly what we do, Jake is, you know, we just speak to luxury salespeople that on the ground and go, what is it you wish that you had and where you had it and they go, Oh, mammal Antonio an hour now, I wish we had a luxury product there that like, was managed like a hotel where I can get breakfast, etc. And you know, it’s a bit of unique, and then we go and build it, you know, with investors, investors money, you know, and they get good returns, they get to use it. But yeah, I mean, Jake, what are you seeing?
I mean, how do the numbers look for arrivals? You know, I mean, we’d sat down, I think, at the end of last year, probably around about the same time and said, Look, we expect anywhere from like a five to 7%, you know, decline here in arrivals into Costa Rica. How do the numbers look so far?
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, so this year, I think overall, it’s, you know, down around 2.83%. Yeah, so not quite as, as drastic as we had expected, but definitely, you know, compared, if you look at 2024, over 2023, when it was up, you know, over 7%, you know, we’re kind of seeing the return back to seasonality here where, you know, October is a slower month, unless you’re over on the Caribbean side, that return to seasonality here, instead of just kind of year round, steady, strong demand.
2026 Outlook and Competition from Nicaragua & El Salvador
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah. What do you think is going to happen in 2026? But I mean, like last year, again, you know, we said five to 7% decline, it looks like it’s gonna be probably around about 3%.
I mean, what do you think is going to happen for next year?
[Jake Alexander]
I think we’ll see steady numbers to what we had this past year. You know, I think there’s definitely some competition from neighboring countries, like El Salvador has been doing a big push. Nicaragua as well as like the less expensive alternative to Costa Rica.
But I think when you look at, you know, Costa Rica, there’s also people who like won’t go to Nicaragua or El Salvador based on their history and their past. And, you know, they know people that have been to Costa Rica and, you know, see it as a destination. And it’s also a place where people return to every year.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah, it’s amazing how many people just kind of keep coming back to Costa Rica. And, you know, I mean, look, Costa Rica’s got some headwinds, it’s exchange rate, you know, which is at the lowest it’s been for 20 years, which makes Costa Rica very expensive destination. You know, and also we’ve got a new presidential election.
We have a few security issues here and there, even though that they’ve been they seem to just be rounding everyone up at the moment. The OIHOTA, which, you know, is our kind of like special police, just seem to be arresting like tons of people at the moment. So, you know, I’m hoping that the new government coming in, you know, takes a focus on security as well, because the current one really hasn’t focused that much on it.
So but yeah, we’ve got elections coming up here in February next year, which will probably go to a runoff, which means that probably by April, May, we’ll have a new, you know, president and God knows who it’s going to be, dude.
Politics on the Streets of San José
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, that is the thing that always like I do enjoy about the political system here. And like, I’m not involved in it. But there’s, you know, 25 parties, and it’s going to come down to whoever to get the most votes out of that.
And then whoever that gets it and, you know, chances of it being the same party two years, two terms in a row is pretty slams.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah. Look, the current president won with 16%. You know, he went to a runoff with 16% of the vote.
I mean, in typically, it doesn’t work like that in most countries.
[Jake Alexander]
Yes. And, you know, people put the flags on the back of their cars and are all driving around with everything and beeping their horns and beeping their horns and like, they’re on the loud speaker on top and like announcing what DJ is playing at the discotheque on Friday while also promoting their presidential candidate.
[Richard Bexon]
You’re gonna love it.
[Jake Alexander]
And it’s like the guy selling eggs is, you know, I got the speaker going with us with us with us. And then there is a little plug for the president in there.
Buyers’ Market from Manuel Antonio to Ojochal
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah, it’s gonna be interesting. But yeah, I mean, look, I think it’s it’s still really good arrivals. I think also the real estate market is continue to be a buyer’s market.
And there’ll probably be some great opportunities out there. You know, I mean, we’re actively looking at the moment, I’m actually about to go negotiate a new property that we’re buying this afternoon. So that should be very interesting that, you know, that’s been probably a eight month negotiation, but I think I’m pretty close there.
So I’m sure we’ll be announcing something in the new year on that one, Jake. Awesome. But yeah, I mean, I think it’s pretty gonna be pretty flat.
You know, I think construction is going to slow down. So it’s architectural design is going to slow down. So we’re going to see probably a setting of prices, again, demand and supply, I think demand is going to not be as strong, which means that, you know, price is going to come down a little bit, which will be nice.
But I still think there’s gonna be some markets that continue to do very well. I mean, we don’t seem to see price drops in Mammal Antonio, just because of the demand and supply, there is no demand and the supply is, it doesn’t matter where the supply hits, there’s just no demand.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, in Mammal Antonio.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah, in Mammal Antonio, yeah. But I think those Southern areas, you know, Dominical down to Ochoa dude, I think that’s going to continue to see prices coming down and down and down there.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, yeah, I was just in Ochoa yesterday. And, you know, I think things tend to just sit for a little bit longer down there than they would in Mammal Antonio. It takes, it’s also like a different kind of buyer for Ochoa versus Mammal Antonio.
Now we’re looking at some two bedrooms, villas, and 285 range that have been on the market for a while. And, you know, I mean, I remember there was a three bedroom that was 295 for brand new, no furniture in it that was on the market for a while that finally sold. I don’t know what it sold for, but I don’t think it was 295.
Lifestyle vs. Pure Investment Across Guanacaste & Central Pacific
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah, I mean, I think for anyone that’s looking to have, look, I think if you’re looking to make pure investment in Costa Rica, you just need to be very smart about what you do. My advice would be is hire a consultant, someone like us to do it, if you’re going to do it, to just really understand from an investment, if it’s 100% investment. If you’re looking for more of a lifestyle investment, if I want a place, and I also want to be able to rent it to cover its costs, I think you could do that in most areas in Costa Rica.
If you want to make a little bit more, I think you just need to be careful what you buy, where you buy it. And then also, I think it’s really important is who property manages it as well. You know, because if you’re 50 properties, I mean, you’re just a nobody to that property management company, where if you want to be one of 10 or one of 15, where that business needs your income in order to somewhat survive, so they’re going to be pushing.
So yeah, it’s going to be interesting to see, you know, the market growth. I can see Santa Teresa is really slowing down. I mean, Nosada is still pretty strong.
Tamarindo is still really strong. Flamingo has started to drop in prices as well as Porchero has, you know, and Coco still seems, Coco Hamosa still seems to be doing well, man. I mean, I think probably there, what’s happening is we’re probably seeing, you know, the Waldorf, I can’t even say it now, the Waldorf and the Ritz-Carlton kind of dragging people over there, and it’s kind of keeping, you know, that demand there.
And so yeah, it’s, you know, and Arenal has seen some land increases as well. Land is very, very expensive around there at the moment, but it’s going to be interesting to see what happens in that southern zone, Jake, as well, which is like, I know where you live from, like, you know, Mammal Antonio, but south of that down to Ojochoa, because I think that really is a buyer’s market and prices are going to drop.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah. Yeah. And I think also, you know, Coco’s kind of a unique market in that there’s stuff for everyone in terms of budget there.
There is. And even, you know, you can be two blocks off the beach and get a place for 200 or less. Yep.
It’s not going to be big. It might not be the nicest, but like the inventory is there.
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah.
[Jake Alexander]
Or you can go spend millions.
Watching Avellanas, Playa Negra and the Southern Zone
[Richard Bexon]
Yeah. What do you think is going to be the hot spot or the place where it’s going to do pretty well? Or, I mean, I’d say pretty well, I don’t know which market’s going to do great, but like in 2026, what are the markets that you will be keeping your eye on?
[Jake Alexander]
So I’m really interested to see what happens in Avellanos. Okay. You know, they’ve got those two big developments and they’re already the point and the enclave, and I’ve seen some other stuff for Ave Moana and then Dumondi, which reminds me of Jumanji, and kind of see like what happens with those and what kind of progress is made there.
It’s not necessarily something that I would invest in myself there, but it’d be interesting to see how that market there shapes up and what ends up getting pushed, you know, a little further south towards like Playa Negra. And then even just, you know, between the southern zone here, between Manuel Antonio and Oaxachal, you know, what happens here and what are the prices coming up, going down, and, you know, who’s coming here? I think we’re going to see a big shift towards like long-term rentals, especially now that the short-term rental market’s flooded.
And particular markets do really well with long-term rentals or like medium-term rentals. You know, for a while, Oaxachal was a hot spot for people renting for like six months as the house they’re building was getting finished up, for example. And, you know, Manuel Antonio, the marina just built the condo tower there.
So that’ll be interesting to see how that affects the rental market here. I don’t think it’s going to have a huge, huge impact, you know, really due to location. It’s kind of designed for like one type of tourist, but it’s still, you know, a lot of investment in the area here.
And between that, our project and that Hilton property project that’s going to be happening is going to be a lot of movement here.
[Richard Bexon]
You’ve got to marry it down by the National Park. You’ve got a huge Hilton project going in over there by Ronnie’s place, if you know what I mean. You’ve got the Quepos Marina just finishing.
I mean, things, you know, and also Nyada’s new hotel is breaking kind of ground. So, you know, there’s a lot of stuff happening in Manuel Antonio that’s definitely going to probably make the market buoyant, that’s for sure.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah. So, yeah, I’m excited to see how, you know, Manuel Antonio really shifts over the next year, two years with all the new construction happening here.
Central Pacific vs. Guanacaste Going Forward
[Richard Bexon]
I think it’s going to be the market that sees the most movement over the next two years. And I say from that, from a tourism market, but also from a real estate market as well, just because of the type of, it’s a really high end product coming in, you know, and what’s been done, I think Guanacaste is now kind of done. There’s nothing new being kind of built from a, I would say, tourism project.
I mean, we still have real estate projects, Pena, you know, they have the One Pena, you know, development. I think there’s a new beachfront development coming online there as well. Reserva Conchao is pretty much done, you know, and you’ve got some higher end stuff going in there.
But yeah, I mean, I think that that’s, I think we’re going to see a refocus on the Central Pacific, to be honest with you, over the next coming years. Yeah. Well, cool.
Well, Jake, this has been an absolute pleasure having you here on the podcast, dude. It’s always great. My last question for you, which I always love to ask everyone is, if you had $500,000 and you had to invest it into a business or real estate in Costa Rica, you know, what would you invest it in and why?
Yeah, so I’m biased.
Where Jake Would Put $500,000 in Costa Rica
[Jake Alexander]
I mean, I would say I would just invest it in our projects here. Yeah. Why?
Because, you know, like, if it’s strictly investment, like, that’s the return.
[Richard Bexon]
Yep.
[Jake Alexander]
And in my case, like, that would be strictly investment, and that’s what I’d be looking for.
[Richard Bexon]
Well, I mean, you are invested in our projects, Jake. So that’s kind of like a trick question, right? I mean, we’re both invested in it.
But I mean, look, if you were, if I was to be like, look, I’ll exclude, you know, investing in our projects in Manuel Antonio Aranau, where would you invest? Like, what would you be looking at? Where do you think there’s opportunity?
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah. So I think we talked about this one before of like, quality, like, electrical company that can like, really come in and like, do proper electric up to the standard that it’s supposed to be done. Because even though like, Costa Rica has adopted the US code, we both know and a lot of people listening to this podcast know that like, unfortunately, that’s just not the way things are.
So, you know, I think if you had a company that could either do electrical or come in more from the consulting side and do like an electrical inspection before it becomes a giant pain to redo things. Yeah, I don’t think it would take a lot of money to really get that going. It’s more of the knowledge.
And I actually had this conversation with a woman from, I think she’s in California, who’s a, you know, a union electrician looking to relocate here full time. And she was interested in like, teaching. And I’m like, you can teach and, you know, if you can find a way to the construction projects from a consulting standpoint, because you actually know how to do this, like residential is easy for you.
You’re used to doing like big commercial projects. Yeah. So I think there’s an opportunity there for but it takes the right person and the right knowledge.
[Richard Bexon]
And you got to pretty good to speak Spanish as well, you know, so, you know, yeah, you better get on Duolingo if you’re going to be starting that one. That will throw yourself in the deep end and just learn as you kind of go, which is usually my philosophy. So yeah, yeah.
Well, Jake, it’s been an absolute pleasure here having you on the podcast. If anybody does want to chat with Jake, and pick his brain, which he’s always open to do, I’ll put all of his contact details down in the description. But Jake, it’s an absolute pleasure having you on the podcast, bud.
[Jake Alexander]
Yeah, thanks for having me. I hope you have a great rest of your day.
[Richard Bexon]
You too.
